Striking the Right Balance: National Security Priorities in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East by Gabriel Scheinmann

MEMORANDUM TO: Donald Trump FROM: Gabriel Scheinmann DATE: Fall 2024 RE: National Security Priorities

When you enter office for your second term, the world will look very different than when you began your first term. Our borders are not secure. Europe is at war, the Middle East is on fire, and Asia is on a knife’s edge. In Afghanistan, we lost our first war in half-a-century. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are forming a near-contiguous entente stretching across the Eurasian continent. This entente already wields greater power, controls twice the territory, possesses access to significantly more resources, and exhibits greater cooperation than the Axis Powers did during World War II. Its central element, China, seeks to displace the United States as the dominant global power and collapse the American order.

This memorandum will suggest major course corrections to key national security threats.

Restore American Sovereignty

The first and most urgent task is to regain control over our own borders. Our open southern and porous coastal borders are national security vulnerabilities exploited by our adversaries. Under President Biden, 10 million people have entered the country illegally, enforcement actions have tripled,¹ fentanyl—most of its precursors originating from China—is killing 75,000 Americans annually,² and Chinese migrants are the fastest growing group illegally crossing our borders.³

You should build and maintain physical barriers, deploy advanced surveillance and detection technology, increase manpower, and use all executive and legislative powers to deter illegal migration. You should enact policies that incentivize and compel governments to stem the flow of migrants and drugs northward from Central and South America. These policies will also reduce Chinese leverage over our economy, our communities, and our law-enforcement.

The Trump Trillion

Hard power is essential for American security, but our defense budget is at a post-World War II low both as a percentage of our federal budget and as a percentage of GDP.⁴ Inflation, Congressional dysfunction, and Department of Defense bureaucracy further diminish its effectiveness. The Navy and Air Force are shrinking while China’s true defense budget approaches parity with our own.⁵ You do not want to be remembered as the president who let China surpass us militarily.

To address this, you must prioritize a generational investment in national defense. First, you should gradually increase the base defense budget up to Cold War-like levels by supporting the detailed plan put forward by incoming-Senate Armed Services Chairman Senator Roger Wicker. Second, your first signature legislation should be the Transformative Resources Utilization for Military Power (TRUMP) Act, which would allocate $1 trillion over five years to build enormous quantities of antiship and anti-aircraft missiles, ships, and aircraft. It would surpass the Reagan defense buildup, fast-charge the defense industrial base, and create over one million manufacturing jobs.⁶ The TRUMP Act is crucial for deterring Chinese aggression and averting a potential global conflict. Munitions could be produced faster and should be expedited. Capital investments would take longer but could still alter near-term Chinese decision-making if Beijing recognizes the closing advantage of prolonged American production capacity.

A Fund for the Free World

The United States should seek high leverage opportunities to degrade the military power of our adversaries. Russia’s war in Ukraine offers a blueprint for addressing multiple engagements concurrently by equipping allies with military resources to pursue victory independently. You should launch the Initiative for Vital Alliances and Neutralizing Key Adversaries (IVANKA). Publicly offering to equip willing partners would enhance our strategic flexibility and capitalize on our strategic advantage: strong allies. An arms race for allies is one we can win because we have both far more arms and far more allies than China, Russia, or Iran. By the time you assume office, America’s $100 billion in military aid to Ukraine will have contributed to ~750,000 Russian casualties without direct U.S. intervention.⁷ Put differently, in the last three years, the United States has suffered more casualties and daily direct combat in the Middle East as a result of pulling its support for counter-Iran coalition than it has in Europe where it is anchoring the counter-Russia coalition.

Funding the defense of the free world is a cost-imposition strategy on our adversaries and a cost-saving strategy for our defense industrial base. You should direct the Department of Defense to shift our defense planning concept to a 1+2 force: fielding a one-war force but also maintaining the capacity to fund and support our allies to win two other wars.⁸

A Contest for Supremacy

China’s ambition to displace us as the world’s leading power, championing its Leninist-Nationalist ideology, poses the greatest national security threat since World War II. Your administration must define this challenge to the American people and our allies: this is not merely a great power competition, but an ideological contest for supremacy that endangers the American order and our way of life.⁹

First, urgent action is needed to restore the balance of power against China. During the time it may take for the substantial effects of the TRUMP Act and the IVANKA to be felt, deterrence by punishment strategies may be necessary until the balance of power shifts in our favor.

Second, to win a Cold War against China, the United States must stop treating it as a partner. From climate change to global public health, from non-proliferation to trade, we do not share interests or have common goals. Holding China accountable for COVID-19 and its status as the largest carbon emitter could rally international coalition support.

Third, you should authorize measures and deployments that put Beijing on the defensive. It is imprudent to stake all American interests on defending Taiwan alone, considering China’s broad global threat. Abandoning or drawing down forces from other positions would play into Beijing’s hands, enabling its expansion without resistance. You should harden and disperse U.S. and allied forces across the First Island Chain but also build new partnerships and positions across the Northern Indian Ocean that complicate its military build-up.

Finally, you should enact policies that diminish Chinese leverage over our political decision-making while enhancing our leverage over theirs. We have allowed ourselves to be compromised by Chinese influence even as we hold far greater natural advantages, in particular in trade and energy markets, and a better strategic position. Diluting Chinese control over key economic sectors, diversifying our supply chains, and ejecting Chinese influence in our vital institutions of higher education and media are imperative. You should also launch the CCP Active Measures Working Group to both disclose and unroot CCP influence in our country.

Say No to a Russian JCPOA, Say Yes to Maximum Pressure

Russia persistently undermines the United States across various fronts, remaining a formidable and cunning adversary that interprets attempts to reset relations as weakness. You should avoid becoming entrapped in a Russian version of the Iran deal, whereby Russia receives up-front, irreversible, and tangible benefits in exchange for future, temporary, and abstract concessions.

To counter Russian power effectively, you should initiate a strategy akin to the “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran. The United States should bolster Ukrainian military capabilities and aim for a complete halt of Russian energy exports to Europe, benefiting American energy exports and eliminating the trade deficit with Europe. Supporting Ukraine against Russia has inflicted significant costs on Moscow without direct military involvement: ~500,000 casualties to date,¹⁰ energy exports to Europe reduced to one-sixth of its pre-war totals,¹¹ and an economy now projected to slide to 15th in the world by the end of your term.¹²

Maximum pressure on Russia creates a dilemma for China: increase its support to Russia, exploit its weakness for its own gain, or abandon it entirely. Encouraging closer cooperation between Russia and China creates more opportunities for exploitation, helps de-leverage our economy from China’s influence, and buys time for our military rebuilding efforts. Over the medium and longer term, the Russian market cannot meet China’s export-driven needs. You would also be wise to emphasize the Chinese secession of “Russian Manchuria” to Russia in the mid-nineteenth century.

A Coalition of the Compelled

The United States should establish and lead an Arab-Israeli coalition to curb Iranian regional influence and prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons capability. This can be achieved with minimal direct military involvement, provided our allies are assured of our military and diplomatic support and coordination. You should not only reinstate the maximum pressure strategy, but also make clear that you support efforts to degrade and forestall Iranian nuclear weapons progress. You should approach the failing counter-Houthi campaign much like you did the struggling counter-ISIS campaign: make it an early priority, target any Iranian asset that is providing support, and go on the offensive. By rolling back Iranian power, the United States can unlock a global strategy that complicates the geopolitical positioning of both China and Russia. A neutralized Iran would weaken Russian influence in the Middle East and Europe while also bolstering our leverage over Chinese energy security. By expanding American energy production and exports, you can help Europe, our Asian allies, and India reduce reliance on Russian supplies. The United States must possess the capability of disrupting the sea lines of communication between the Arabian Peninsula and China. An opportunity exists to build a far wider coalition for a comprehensive pressure strategy against Iran than ever before.

Conclusion

The hour is getting late. Sacrifice will be necessary to ensure our way of life prevails. You must make a serious investment in our military capabilities while simultaneously employing high leverage strategies that frustrate our adversaries, strengthen our allies, and buy time.