Striking the Right Balance: National Security Priorities in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East by Matthew Kroenig

MEMORANDUM TO: Donald Trump FROM: Matthew Kroenig DATE: May 20, 2024 RE: An America First National Security Strategy

This is a memo with recommendations for your next America First National Security Strategy. This memo will draw on your actions and statements to present a clear vision for a successful second-term National Security Strategy.

Global Strategy

The United States is a powerful country with worldwide interests. These interests are threatened when hostile dictatorships, armed with or pursuing nuclear weapons, attack or threaten their neighbors and attempt to dominate their regions. Your strong leadership brought peace and prosperity to the American people.

But, you have said, “Biden is weak...and leading the world straight into World War III.”¹ His foreign policy has resulted in two major wars in Europe and the Middle East, and a weakened position relative to China. “Remember: this war in Israel, just like the war in Ukraine, would have never started if [you were] in the White House...But very soon, [you] will be back, and once again demanding peace through strength.”²

Defense Strategy

To pursue peace through strength, you will need to rebuild our depleted military. You presided over the largest defense budget in history. Under President Biden, the United States is essentially cutting America’s defense budget after inflation. You should undertake a massive military buildup to five percent of U.S. GDP and rebuild our defense industrial base. You should field a “top of the pack” nuclear force,³ following the recommendations of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States. You should also build state-of-the-art missile defenses, including theater defenses and, for the first time, the “greatest (Iron) Dome of them all” to defend the U.S. homeland against coercive attacks from China and Russia.⁴

China and the Indo-Pacific

China is the most capable adversary the United States has ever faced, and it presents a comprehensive, systemic, military, economic, technological, and ideological threat. You correctly declared great power competition with China the greatest threat facing the country.

Unfortunately, Biden is weakening our position in relation to China. He says he wants to “responsibly manage the competition” with China.⁵ You do not “manage” competitions. You win them. You should vow to win the new Cold War with China.

China is threatening to attack its neighbors, including Taiwan. In response, Biden is speaking loudly and carrying a tiny stick. He has said four times that he will defend Taiwan, but he is not building the military to do that. You should also vow to deter and, if necessary, defeat China, but, unlike Biden, you should build a military designed to back that up.

China continues to cheat on international trade and steal intellectual property from the United States. You should impose high tariffs on China, especially in sensitive national security areas, and secure U.S. supply chains by reshoring and friendshoring trade and investment back to the United States and our close allies and partners.

You strengthened America’s alliances in the Indo-Pacific, including by reviving the Quad framework among the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. You should continue to strengthen alliances and partnerships in the region and deepen links among European and Asian allies in new frameworks such as NATO-IP4.

Xi is very ideological and claims that China’s communist system is better than the U.S. model. America has a lot of problems, to be sure, but after you begin making America great again, you should demonstrate to him and the world that American freedom is the best system ever invented for generating wealth and power.

Biden says that we need to cooperate with China to solve shared global challenges like climate change and global public health, but this view is misguided. Climate change is not an existential threat; it is a problem to be managed. Moreover, China is a bad actor in these areas. China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, and it is a leader in green technology mostly because it wants to dominate 21st century energy resources. Its failure to report COVID-19 led to a global pandemic, and Beijing still refuses to allow an investigation into the origins of COVID-19, making a future outbreak more likely. Instead of prioritizing cooperation with China on climate change, you should increase energy production and slash regulations to regain U.S. energy independence.

Border security also affects competition with China. China is supplying fentanyl to the United States, which killed 112,000 Americans in 2023 alone.⁶ Moreover, last year, 24,000 Chinese military-age men illegally crossed the border.⁷ Most of them are economic migrants, but what if even one percent was sent by the Chinese Communist Party? We need to close the border for both economic and national security reasons.

You made North Korea a priority, but Biden finds the problem too difficult and places it on the back burner. Meanwhile, North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat to the United States continues to grow. You should restore a “maximum pressure”8 campaign on North Korea to force Kim Jong Un to the table to negotiate denuclearization. Meanwhile, you should restore a strong deterrent against the serious nuclear and missile threat that exists here and now.

Russia and Europe

Stability in Europe is important to the peace and prosperity of all Americans. Europe is America’s number one trade and investment partner, and Americans fought two world wars to restore stability to the continent.

There was peace in Europe while you were president. Putin attacked Georgia under George W. Bush. He attacked Ukraine under Obama. Then he further invaded Ukraine under Biden. He did not attack other countries when you were president. This is in part because you were much tougher on Putin than you receive credit for. You sent lethal aid to Ukraine for the first time. You killed hundreds of Russian mercenaries on the ground in Syria. You increased America’s military force posture in Poland—and so on. You should continue that strong approach in your second term.

But Biden’s weakness invited Putin’s attack. Biden said that a “minor incursion” against Ukraine would be OK,⁹ and he gave Putin a green light by removing the threat of military force from the table and promising only weak sanctions. Now, Biden has no strategy for ending the war in Ukraine, and he is needlessly limiting weapons to Ukraine because he is overly afraid of escalation with Russia. He says he wants to fight this war in Ukraine “as long as it takes.”¹⁰ But Americans do not want another long war with no clear endgame.

We need to stop Putin and, as you said, for “everybody to stop dying.”¹¹ This will include telling Putin that if he does not wind down the war, “we’re going to give [Zelenskyy] a lot. We’re going to give [Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.”¹² A fuller description of such a strategy for Ukraine can be found in a piece I published with Stephen Hadley in The Wall Street Journal in February.

To defend Europe, European countries (and Canada) are going to need to do much more. But we cannot trust Germany to look after America’s interests in Europe. So, America will continue to lead in Europe, but Europe (and Canada) will need to pay their fair share. Under your leadership, European countries began spending much more on defense, but you should raise the bar and insist that all NATO countries spend three percent of GDP on defense and that European countries fulfill at least half of Europe’s overall defense requirements.

Iran and the Middle East

Your Middle East policy was successful. You wiped ISIS off the battlefield, contained Iran with the maximum pressure campaign, and achieved a historic Middle East peace with the Abraham Accords.

Biden is squandering that successful legacy. He foolishly tried to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran by easing sanctions and appeasing Iran’s Supreme Leader. In response, Iran pocketed the cash, ramped up its nuclear program, re-armed, and supported terrorism through the region. Iran is now closer than ever to a nuclear weapon. Tehran is backing terrorist attacks throughout the region, which have killed Americans. Further, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, but Biden refuses to confront Tehran because he is afraid of escalation with Iran. Biden now threatens to cut off arms to Israel.

In contrast, you should fully back Israel in its goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza. With your support, they need to, as you said, “finish what they started” and “get it over fast.”¹³

You should restore a maximum pressure campaign against Iran with much tougher sanctions to drive their oil exports down to zero. And you should be very clear that if they ever try to build nuclear weapons or attack Americans, they will, as you said, “suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before.”¹⁴

You should then use the peace and stability this provides to expand on the Abraham Accords to bring Saudi Arabia and other countries into the arrangement, increasing opportunities for the United States and the region.

Conclusion

The great Ronald Reagan made history by winning the first Cold War. By following the strategy outlined above, you can counter America’s rivals, prevail over China, and go down in history as the president who made America great again and won the Second Cold War.